Starting from the predictions made by the Consensus Economics for the average percentage change in the previous year of the imports and exports of Euro Area for 2010 and 2011, some strategies to improve the forecasts accuracy were tested. The most accurate forecasts for 2010 were those based on...

The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001-2013 provided by all experts do not provide...

Forecasting current quarter GDP is a permanent task inside the central banks. Many models are known and proposed to solve this problem. Thanks to new results on the asymptotic normality of the multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression estimate, we propose an interesting and new approach to...

This paper explores the link between the leverage of the US financial sector, of households and of non-financial businesses, and real activity. We document that leverage is negatively correlated with the future growth of real activity, and positively linked to the conditional volatility of...

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should beforecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In thisarticle we demonstrate that variables aggregation is an important source of uncertainty inforecasting and we...

Technological developments and the global economic crisis are two types of developments that have affected the commercial airline industry in the last decade. This paper investigates time series analysis of the airline industry. The research has been conducted and is being presented, in a number...

Econometric modelling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and...

This research brings as a novelty in literature the use of other methods to compare the forecasts accuracy: multicriterial ranks, non-parametric tests and binary logistic regression. Starting from the a conclusion stated in literature that Dobrescu model failed to predict the actual crisis in...

The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of actual economic crisis, but few researchers were interested till now in finding out some empirical strategies to improve their predictions. In this article, for the inflation rate forecasts on the horizon 2010-2012, we...