In this paper we consider forecasting daily exchange rate returns using neutral network models (NNs). Based on simulations, we argue (i) that neglected GARCH does not lead to spuriously successful NNs and (ii) that if there is nonlinearity in the conditional mean, NNs will exploit this for...

Population aging challenges pay-as-you-go pension systems. Solving the associated funding problem constantly motivates reform processes. In addition to an aging population, specific regulations of the German public pension system lead to an increasing financial burden of national finances. To...

Due to Germany’s specific farm structure, the progressive modulation of direct payments decided within the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is of particular relevance for German agriculture. In this paper we apply the agent-based model AgriPoliS to shed some light on the...

Most social scientists, especially economists, believe that altruists do not exist because they cannot survive exploitation by egoists. An agent-based model demonstrates, however, that altruists can survive natural selection if society comprises four types of individuals: altruists, reciprocal...

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper on long term forecasting of regional level consumption per capita in Yugoslavia, using the BACHUE demographic aspects and economic model to produce simulations - considers the effect of income, household characteristics, social services, educational level and the...