In this paper, we illustrate the application of Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty. The focus is on a simple projection model with the historical data representing population change in England and Wales from 1841 to 2007. The Bayesian forecasts to...

The paper is devoted to the natural population change forecast in Latvia for the time horizon until 2030. The motivation for this paper is twofold. First, population ageing is an obvious problem for the whole EU with a tendency to worsen in the future. Second, historical population data have...

Previous studies have demonstrated both large efficiency gains and reductions in bias by incorporating population information in regression estimation with sample survey data. These studies, however, assume the population values are exact. This assumption is relaxed here through a Bayesian...

In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is a measure of how many years a person has...

Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are...

The aim of this article is to define the Lithuanian public pension system reforms, influenced by the last economic crisis and social challenges (ageing processes, raising social expenses). The paper also investigates the influence that current demographic trends will exert on the financial...

The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to present the first comprehensive set of...

Der Demografische Wandel in Deutschland und Europa führt zu einer veränderten Nachfrage nach Infrastrukturdienstleistungen. Allerdings verläuft die demografische Entwicklung regional unterschiedlich. In dieser Arbeit werden als demografischer Input für Infrastrukturmodelle...

"Der Forschungsbericht beschreibt die IAB-Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis zum Jahr 2050. Die Vorausschätzung basiert auf den zwei Grundbausteinen Bevölkerungsprojektion und Projektion der Potenzialerwerbsquoten. Die Rechnungen sind disaggregiert nach Altersgruppen und Geschlecht...