This paper uses provisional monthly data to predict the one-month-ahead and one-year-ahead current account balance. Single-equation methods are compared to an eight-equation vector autoregressive model that utilizes the Box-Tiao (1977) modifications. It is found that the single-equation model of...

This paper considers structural models when both I(1) and I(0) variables are present. The structural shocks associated with either set of variables could be permanent or transitory. We therefore classify the shocks as (P1,P0) and (T1,T0), where P/T distinguishes permanent and transitory, while...

Dynamic interactions among the real exchange rate, income and imports are modelled for Australia. Evidence of one cointegrating relationship is found among these series and base structural inferences on long-run identifying restrictions of the type proposed for vector-error correction models by...

This article re-examines the evidence that cay, the residual from a cointegrating regression of consumption on labour income and household wealth, is a useful predictor of excess stock returns in Australian data. In recursive samples beginning in 1976:q4 and ending from 1990:q1 to 2003:q1, cay...

type="main" xml:id="ecpa12070-abs-0001" <p>The retirement risk zone represents a fragile period in the financial life cycle of people in defined-contributions superannuation. It primarily affects people of middle means. Sequencing risk has been described as an independent risk, but it has largely...</p>