We discuss a Bayesian discovery procedure for multiple-comparison problems. We show that, under a coherent decision theoretic framework, a loss function combining true positive and false positive counts leads to a decision rule that is based on a threshold of the posterior probability of the...

We consider the problem of combining inference in related nonparametric Bayes models. Analogous to parametric hierarchical models, the hierarchical extension formalizes borrowing strength across the related submodels. In the nonparametric context, modelling is complicated by the fact that the...

Data analysis sometimes requires the relaxation of parametric assumptions in order to gain modeling flexibility and robustness against mis-specification of the probability model. In the Bayesian context, this is accomplished by placing a prior distribution on a function space, such as the space...

We introduce a novel stochastic process that we term the multivariate beta process. The process is defined for modelling-dependent random probabilities and has beta marginal distributions. We use this process to define a probability model for a family of unknown distributions indexed by...

Der Festvortrag von Thomas Rachel, die Statements von Roland Berger, Peter Müller und Ludger Wößmann sowie die ifo Konjunkturprognose sind hier veröffentlicht.

The paper develops a simulation-based approach to sequential parameter learning and filtering in general state space models. Our approach is based on approximating the target posterior by a mixture of fixed lag smoothing distributions. Parameter inference exploits a sufficient statistic...

We consider an extended version of a model proposed by Ledford and Tawn [Ledford, A.W., Tawn, J.A., 1997. Modelling dependence within joint tail regions. J. R. Stat. Soc. 59 (2), 475-499] for the joint tail distribution of a bivariate random vector, which essentially assumes an asymptotic power...

We analyse data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The data are observed values of the "&bgr;" human chorionic gonadotropin hormone measured during the first 80 days of gestational age, including from one up to six longitudinal responses for each woman. The main objective in this study is to...