A canonical model is described which reflects the real-time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...

In this paper we investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Australia, post 1959. We focus on two features of the data: firstly, we find that forecasting models are surprisingly through ou sample period. We also estimate the nonaccelaring inflation rate of unemployment...

The Friedman-Ball hypothesis implies a link between the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty. In this paper we employ a new test for the joint null hypothesis of no dependence effects and no asymmetry in the G7 inflation volatility. The results show that higher inflation rates operate...

Evidence suggests that short-term interest rate volatility peaks with the level of short rates, while equity volatility responds asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. We present an LM based test that distinguishes between level effects and asymmetry in volatility which is robust to the...

This article presents new evidence on the ability of Peacock and Wiseman's displacement hypothesis to explain temporal increases in the ratio of government expenditure to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the UK. Using univariate modelling techniques that are robust to structural changes in the...

This paper presents a test of Wagner's Law for the OECD countries using data from 1960 to 1995. Unlike other analyses of Wagner's Law, explicit allowance is made in the paper for the effect of changes in the age distribution of the population on public spending. The results show that the...

We use a model of intertemporal tax smoothing to examine long run data on fiscal policy in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. We find that the intertemporal model provides a good description of tax policy for the United States but is rejected for Australia and for the UK.

We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for postwar U.S. data in a multivariate asymmetric GARCH-M model. Our statistical model differs from other work in that we allow the conditional covariance of inflation and growth...

This paper looks at the interaction between public and private consumption in Australia. The results show that there is substitution between private and public consumption in the long-run and that in the short-run, changes to government consumption secures a retourn to equilibrium following a shock.