Using Swedish stock market data, this study investigates whether an investment strategy based on publicly available accounting information can generate abnormal investment returns. The strategy involves two steps. First, an accounting-based probabilistic prediction model of changes in the...

The purpose of the paper is to incorporate probabilistic business failure predictions in discounted cash flow (DCF) models for the valuation of company bonds and owners´ equity. The analysis shows that period-specific probabilities of business failure are instrumental to the assessment of...

Probabilistic business failure prediction models are commonly estimated from non-random samples of companies. The proportion of failure companies in such samples is often much larger than the proportion of failure companies in most real-world decision contexts. This so-called “choice-based...

We investigate a disaggregated version of the abnormal earnings growth (AEG) model of Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005). The value of the firm then becomes discounted free cash flows minus initial debt. Discounted free cash flows are equal to capitalized operating earnings from the initial...

In the abnormal earnings growth (AEG) model of Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005), there is one interest rate and no taxes. Their model focuses on bottom-line earnings and dividends and is hence viewed as an equity-level model. We first extend this model to a firm-level model based on operating...

Two valuation models based on accounting concepts and measurements are specified and discussed in the paper - a "residual income valuation" model and a "value added valuation" model. Given clean surplus accounting, the first model is identical to a model where future expected dividends and a...

The disclosure behaviour for a sample of quoted Swedish and UK pharmaceutical companies is investigated in the paper. The sample consists of three Swedish (Astra, Gambro and Pharmacia) and three UK (Glaxo, SmithKline Beecham and Wellcome) pharmaceutical companies, whose annual financial reports...

For a full text file please contact the corresponding author: Kenth Skogsvik (E-mail: kenth.skogsvik@hhs.se).