The authors attempt to account for the covariances between stock markets and to assess their integration. They estimate a factor model for sixteen national stock market returns whose volatility is induced by changing volatility in the factors. Unanticipated returns depend on innovations in...

The empirical objective of this study is to account for the time-variation the covariances between markets. Using data on sixteen national stock markets, we estimate a multivariate factor model in which the volatility of returns is induced by changing volatility in the orthogonal factors. Excess...

This paper investigates why, in October 1987, almost all stock markets fell together despite widely differing economic circumstances. The idea is that "contagion" between markets occurs as the result of attempts by rational agents to infer information from price changes in other markets. This...

This paper attempts to explore whether lagged variables that help predict stock returns are merely proxying for mismeasured risk. Therefore, three different ways of measuring risk are employed (i.e., semiparametric, GARCH, and lagged squared returns). In an application to Japanese data, four key...

Mervyn King is the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and a co-founder of the LSE Financial Markets Group. On Wednesday 29 October 1997 he gave a public lecture at the LSE to mark the 10th anniversary of the Financial Markets Group and the 5th annivesay of the Bank of England Inflation...

In this paper, I first provide a unifying approach to Mean-Variance analysis and Value at Risk, which highlights both their similarities and differences. Then I use it to explain how fund managers can take investment decisions within the well-known Mean-Variance allocation framework that satisfy...

We compare the Sharpe rations of investment funds which combine one riskless and one risky asset following: i) timing strategies which forecast excess returns using simple regressions; ii) a strategy which uses multiple regression instead; and iii) a passive allocation which combines the funds in...