This paper finds evidence that, as for the United States , there exists an inverse relation between real stock returns and inflation i n Canada. Such a relation, if nonspurious, could signify a nonneutralit y of money. The authors' causality tests suggest, however, that inflation does not cause...

This paper examines the predictive content of the term structure of interest rates for economic activity in Canada. Recent papers for the United States and other countries find that the slope of the term structure is a very good predictor of output growth. We find a strong, positive relationship...

This paper examines the predictive content of the term structure of interest rates for economic activity in Canada. Recent papers for the United States and other countries find that the slope of the term structure is a very good predictor of output growth. We find a strong, positive relationship...

We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has...

We discuss and reconcile the geological and economic/technological views concerning the future of world oil production and prices, and present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in...

The paper examines the effects of measurement error on a well-known causality-testing procedure, that due to Pierce and Haugh. This is shown to be extremely sensitive to small random variations, which may induce the appearance of, as well as obscure, causality patterns, through causing...

The authors analyze the extent to which inflation-targeting frameworks should incorporate flexibility in order to respond to asset-price misalignments and other atypical events. They examine the costs and benefits of adding flexibility to the Bank's current inflation-targeting framework, and...