The rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorising. This review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects and analyses the implications for the rational expectations hypothesis. The experiments show that...

The rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorizing. This review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects in a number of learning-to-forecast experiments and analyzes the implications for the rational...

Empirical work in macroeconomics almost universally relies on the hypothesis of rational expectations. This paper departs from the literature by considering a variety of alternative expectations formation models. We study the econometric properties of a popular New Keynesian monetary DSGE model...

This paper studies the formulation of monetary policy in a changing environment when knowledge regarding some aspects of the structure of the economy is imperfect and an adaptive learning technology is available to the policymaker and economic agents. As a benchmark, we develop a simple model of...

Der Bericht stellt den Wirtschaftsnobelpreis 1995 für Robert E. Lucas zur Diskussion. Dabei wird die Entwicklung der Forschungsinhalte des Preisträgers gewürdigt. Bekanntgeworden ist Robert Lucas in den siebziger Jahren neben der Übertragung der rationalen Erwartungen auf die Makroökonomik...

Real-time ultrasound information taken on beef heifers prior to backgrounding is used to develop a logit model to aid heifer retention decisions. The value of ultrasound data is calculated as the difference in certainty equivalents between a decision rule incorporating ultrasound information and...

Stocker cattle ownership is compared to contract grazing using stochastic simulation. Returns are evaluated for both cattle owners and caretakers in contract grazing agreements. For caretakers, contract grazing is significantly less risky than cattle ownership. Slightly to moderately risk-averse...

The study analyzes the effect of risk aversion on the optimal level of fertilizer by employing a pooled time-series cross-sectional survey data collected from 46 rainfed rice farmers in Tarlac, Central Luzon, Philippines. Based on a heteroscedastic specification of production function,...