This paper presents an analysis of time-series data for the countries in the Summers-Heston (1991) data set, in an attempt to ascertain the evidence for or against the export-led growth hypothesis. We find that standard methods of detecting export-led growth using Granger causality tests may...

This paper provides an overview of how labour market analysis can be conducted in the context of VAR-based models. The examples presented here show that these methods are quite flexible, and capable of addressing a wide variety of theoretical and policy-related issues. Specifically, the various...

This paper proposes a Structural Error Correction Model (SECM) that allows concurrent estimation of the structural parameters and analysis of cointegration. We amalgamate the Bayesian methods of Kleibergen and Paap (2002) for analysis of cointegration in the ECM, and the Bayesian methods of...

In a recent paper, Jeffrey Frankel documents a negative and significant relationship between real interest rates and real commodity prices. This paper demonstrates that Frankel's results are open to question on methodological grounds. First, Frankel did not account for possible unit roots or...

Over the last 20 years or so, the volatility of aggregate economic activity has fallen dramatically in most of the industrialized world. The timing and nature of the decline vary across countries, but the phenomenon has been so widespread and persistent that it has earned the label: “the Great...