A avaliação da habilidade preditiva das expectativas do mercado - pesquisa Focus - sobre a taxa de inflação brasileira é importante, dado o papel predominante destas expectativas na condução da política monetária no Brasil. Lima e Céspedes (2006) mostraram que, no período de janeiro...

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the dynamics of the economy and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). We test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level for Brazil, analyzing the response of public sector...

This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the soybean market (grain, oil and meal) to assess the effects of U.S. domestic support to soybeans on world soybean prices, production and exports. The model divides the world into five regions (modules): Argentina, Brazil, the European...

This paper estimates the Brazilian Nairu (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) and investigates several empirical questions: the behavior of Nairu along time, error bands for Nairu and the usefulness of Nairu to the conduct of monetary policy in Brazil. There are many recent studies...

Spatial dependence results from the existence of spillover effects such as the impact of the price of one housing unit on the price of its adjacent neighbors. One way to account for spatial dependence is to specify spatial lag models in which a spatially lagged variable is assumed to play a role...

When analyzing the demand for money in high inflation processes it has been suggested [Tourinho (1995)] that we should consider not only the effects of changes in the expected inflation rate but also changes in the expected variability of inflation. The model in Lima & Ehlers (1993) is extended...