On October 25, 2010, a Mw = 7.7 magnitude earthquake was recorded in the Kepulauan Mentawai archipelago, in Indonesia. Following the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami bulletin to the countries of the Indian Ocean informing them that a local tsunami watch was in...

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities...

This paper presents a hybrid model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the artificial intelligence tools. The model combines the learning ability of the artificial neural network (ANN) with the inference mechanism of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) technique. Thus,...

The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system (EWS). That allows for analyzing the preferences of the involved politicians with regard to the two potential errors of an EWS – missing a crisis and issuing a false...

The signals approach as an early warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it does not distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we...

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

Traditionally, nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWSs) rely on macroeconomic leading indicators to forecast the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking into account the persistence of the crisis phenomenon. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an...

Traditionally, financial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWSs) have relied on macroeconomic leading indicators when forecasting the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking the persistence of the crisis phenomenon into account. The dynamic logit EWS is...

Despite the importance of early warning systems (EWS) in revealing weak signals on environmental changes and in constructing a solid base for timely and appropriate business response, particularly against the backdrop of business crises, empirical evidence - especially at the country level -...