We examine a model in which all firms receive common signals as to the uncertain profitability of an investment whose actual payoffs are split only among those who develop the project earliest. The benefit from preempting rivals yields an equilibrium reduction in the amount of learning and...

The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estimation procedure provides a specification of the error terms as well as estimates of the coefficients. A simple interest rate equation is estimated using least squares and also using ARCH. Then the stochastic simulation methodology is...

The announced changes in monthly employment reports and in weekly new unemployment claim reports are based on new levels and on revisions to previous levels. We analyze the effect on interest rates of surprises to these two separate components of the changes. We find that for weekly reports the...

We challenge asset pricing theory with numerous stylized facts regarding risk and return on U.S. Treasury securities. Most striking is our finding that reward/risk ratios vary inversely with maturity and are incredibly high for short-term bills. Apparently investors would do much better engaging...

The extent to which the observed procedures for selling new issues are efficient is studied. We show that a posted-price mechanism, in conjunction with nonbinding preplay communication and participation restrictions, leads to an allocation of the security (and payment) that maximizes the...

We analyze theoretically and empirically the implications of information asymmetry for equilibrium asset pricing and portfolio choice. In our partially revealing dynamic rational expectations equilibrium, portfolio separation fails, and indexing is not optimal. We show how uninformed investors...