After presenting the structural models of exchange-rate determination, the authors show that their out-of-sample predictive performance of the lira/$ exchange rate is inferior to that of the random walk model. Only by moving away from these single-equation, semireduced form models toward...

Structural reforms and investments are the key drivers for the Italian economy. Banks can help Smes in their recovery process, acting as consultants and tutors in diversifying their financial sources. Securitization, minibonds, new funds, extension of collateral are important tools that...

In this article we develop a simple and stylised analytical framework, which is both tractable and feasible to estimate, capturing several key dimensions of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We use it to examine if and how a combination of fiscal consolidation, structural reform and financial...

Fiscal consolidation will go too far if it pushes the economy towards a ?bad equilibrium? with high and growing fiscal deficits and debt, high risk premia on sovereign debt, slumping economic activity and plummeting confidence. In this paper we examine the possible conditions under which fiscal...