The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of omitted variables in testing the long run validity of Wagner's hypothesis. Using UK data for the period 1948 to 1997, this paper first investigates the secular relationship between public spending and economic development in a bivariate...

In this paper we use the exogeneity techniques developed by Engle and Hendry (Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 56, pp. 119-39) and data from three Asian NICs to test the invariance assumption of the export-led growth hypothesis.

This article investigates the impact of openness and tariff reductions on the technical inventiveness of selected OECD countries. The results suggest that even these simple forms of trade liberalization may, under certain conditions, favour technical inventiveness or creativity, the most...

This paper represents a first formal attempt to examine the ability of consumer confidence to forecast household spending within a multicountry framework. To this end, we use two confidence indices, namely the Consumer Confidence Indicator and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, both of which are...

This article examines the usefulness of various measures of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending in the United States. Using the reduced-form equation of Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (American Economic Review 84:1397–1408, 1994), we find that for the post-World War II period,...

This article proposes a new portmanteau test based on sample partial autocorrelations. The test statistic is asymptotically χ2 under the null hypothesis of randomness. Simulation results indicate that the proposed test, which utilizes Anderson's mean and variance formulae of sample partial...

Sample partial autocorrelations are one of the main statistical tools of time series analysis. They are especially useful in identifying the order of an AR(p) process. In this note, we show via a simulation experiment that normalizing each sample partial autocorrelation with Anderson's (1993a)...

This paper presents exogeneity tests for the existence (or absence) of a behavioural relationship between financial deepening and economic growth for three high performing economies: Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. The findings suggest that weak, strong and super exogeneity assumptions are...