The article presents a long-term macro-model of the US trade balance that allows for agents with rational expectations to learn about the key parameters affecting the currency forecast. This allows for a dynamic that is a plausible middle-ground between the standard alternatives of either...

This paper studies the behaviour of the CZK/USD exchange rate based on four major models. Using the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) as a criterion, the IS-MP model performs best, followed by the monetary model, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model using the relative Producer Price Index...

This paper studies the behaviour of the CZK/USD exchange rate based on four major models. Using the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) as a criterion, the IS-MP model performs best, followed by the monetary model, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model using the relative Producer Price Index...

This paper examines the external sustainability and competitiveness of Benin’s economy. Balance of payments flows suggest Benin’s external position is sustainable. Large trade and current account deficits are comfortably financed by inflows through the capital and financial...

This Selected Issues Paper and Statistical Appendix for Niger are discussed. The Nigerien economic outlook has been improving since 1999. After a long period of decline in per capita income, growth accelerated through 2007, attaining an annual average of 4 percent, or about 1 percent in per...

This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange...