The article presents a long-term macro-model of the US trade balance that allows for agents with rational expectations to learn about the key parameters affecting the currency forecast. This allows for a dynamic that is a plausible middle-ground between the standard alternatives of either...

It is often argued that the United States cannot continue for long to run current account deficits of their current size of 5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This article questions this conventional wisdom by examining the implications were the United States to continue to run current...

The paper examines progress with the external rebalancing of euro area deficit countries. Relative prices are adjusting at different pace across countries and with different compositions of wage cuts and labor shedding. There is so far limited evidence of resource re-allocation from non-tradable...

This Selected Issues paper examines external developments and competitiveness in France. Over the past decade, the current account has deteriorated from a surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2002 to a deficit of about 2.3 percent in 2012, as France lost ground in goods trade and services recorded...