Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

We study the environmental and economic effects of public abatement in the presence of multiple stable steady-state ecological equilibria featuring reversible hysteresis. The isocline for the stock of pollution possesses two stable branches. Assuming that the ecology is initially located on the...

For worldwide fisheries production, two major trends emerge for the next decades: a significantly larger role for aquaculture and reduced output due to climate change impacts. While the former leads to an increase in cost, the latter affects natural regeneration. To address both impacts, we...

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and “convergence models” differ in their assessment of the extent to which demography influences economic growth. Here, I show that CGE models produce results similar to those of convergence models when more detailed demographic information is...

We develop a neoclassical growth model having a realistic demographic structure. We identify the critical channel of impact to be the intertemporal consumption allocation decision through the “generational turnover term”. Expressing the aggregate dynamics as a generalization of the...

For an overlapping generations economy with varying life-cycle productivity, non-stationary endowments, continuous time starting at <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$-\infty $$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> (hence allowing for full anticipation), constant-returns-to-scale production and <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ces utility, we fully characterise equilibria where output is higher...</emphasis></equationsource></inlineequation>

While most of the literature concerned with indeterminacy considers a representative agent, some recent works have investigated the role of heterogenous agents on dynamics. This paper adds a contribution to the debate, stressing the effects of heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences within an...

China’s growth is characterized by massive capital accumulation, made possible by high and increasing domestic savings. In this paper we develop a model with the aim of explaining why savings rates have been high and increasing,and we investigate the general equilibrium effects on capital...

We investigate an overlapping generations model (OLG) model in which agents who live for two periods receive idiosyncratic productivity shocks when they are old. We show that a combination of lump-sum and linear capital taxes can always Pareto-improve the allocation, that is, it can raise the...

Aging is an unstoppable process and it remains a major challenge for the sustainability of the PAYG pension system in most developed countries, including in Spain. Many countries need to introduce reforms of their pension systems in order to control their expenditure, and in some cases this has...