We evaluate techniques for comparing the ability of Markov regime switching (MRS) models to fit underlying regimes of a series of interest. This is particularly important in the business cycle literature where one may be interested in determining whether using leading indicators to allow...

In the business cycle literature researchers often want to determine the extent to which models of the business cycle reproduce broad characteristics of the real world business cycle they purport to represent. Of considerable interest is whether a model’s implied cycle chronology is consistent...

Using a number of alternative approaches, Sichel (1994) demonstrated evidence supporting the notion that the US business cycle is best characterized as having three distinct phases, viz. contraction, followed by rapid expansion during the early stages of the recovery phase, followed by a period...

Durland and McCurdy (1994) investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime switching approach, introduced by Hamilton (1989) and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo (1994). In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration...

This paper draws its title from a paper written over 35 years ago by Geoffrey H. Moore (1967). Why the need for a reprise? First, there would appear currently to be somewhat diverging views as to what properly constitutes a recession. Second, largely as a result of this, in many countries other...

In recent years Taylor’s rule has become a widely used tool for assessing the stance of monetary policy. Not only has it been used to evaluate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, but also, for example, to evaluate the appropriateness of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy...

The paper re-examines the issue of duration dependence in the Australian classical and growth business cycles in light of the somewhat surprising results obtained recently by Cashin and Ouliaris (2004). In so doing the authors use the multinomial logit regime switching modelling approach of...

A new business cycle turning point signalling system is proposed and examined by using Japanese, US and Australian composite indexes of economic activity. Time varying transition probabilities in a Markov regime-switching model are used as the basis of the signalling system. The performance of...