This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of...

Check processing institutions are being forced to downsize their workforce to cut cost and improve the efficiency of their operations as a result of continued growth of electronic payments, a consequence of the increasing popularity of debit/credit cards and use of online banking. For these...

The relationship between interest rates and exchange rates is puzzling and poorly understood. But under some standard assumptions, interest rates can be adjusted to smooth real exchange rate movements at the possible price of increased volatility in other variables. In New Zealand, estimates...

The distinguished International Seminar on Macroeconomics has met annually in Europe for over thirty years. The topics covered in this year’s volume fall into four categories: exchange rates, global business cycles, the financial crisis, and unemployment and the Great Recession. The chapters...

<DIV>The distinguished International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISoM) has met annually in Europe for thirty years. The papers included in this volume discuss openness and the fall and rise of stock market correlations between 1890 and 2001; defaults, underwriters and sovereign bond markets between 1815...</div>

<DIV><DIV><P>The distinguished International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISoM) has met annually in Europe for thirty years. The papers included in <I>ISoM 2006 </I>discuss the relationship between prices and productivity in the OECD; monetary policy impact on inflation and output; implications of rising government...</i></p></div></div>

We propose and evaluate a technique for instrumental variables estimation of linear models with conditional heteroskedasticity. The technique uses approximating parametric models for the projection of right-hand side variables onto the instrument space, and for conditional heteroskedasticity and...

We construct factors from a cross-section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...