Empirically, a higher frequency of lightning strikes is associated with slower growth in labor productivity across the 48 contiguous U.S. states after 1990; before 1990, there is no correlation between growth and lightning. Other climate variables (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and tornadoes) do not...

Unified growth theory predicts that the timing of the fertility transition is a key determinant of contemporary comparative development, as it marks the onset of the take-off to sustained growth. Neoclassical growth theory presupposes a take-off, and explains comparative development by...

This paper takes a fresh look at three issues in the aid effectiveness debate. First, we assess the theoretical case for foreign aid. Using an endogenous growth version of the standard overlapping generations model, we show that aid can be an effective policy tool in spurring growth in poor...

The so-called “fiscal policy approach" predicts that increases in income skewness should be associated with an intensification of redistributive efforts, at least in democracies. If redistribution is detrimental to growth, then this implies that a poor middle class is bad for long-run...

In this paper we develop a theory of scale-invariant endogenous growth. By this we mean a theory capable of generating a balanced growth path where both the growth rate and the level of GDP per capita are independent of the size of population, where population growth is neither necessary nor...

This paper examines the joint determination of long-run income per worker and capital utilization. Comparatively low (optimal) rates of capital utilization may arise in poor economies in response to weak underlying structural characteristics. The quantitative implications of variable capital...

The development accounting literature almost always assumes a Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function. However, if in reality the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor deviates substantially from 1, the assumption is invalid, potentially casting doubt on the commonly held view that...

According to much of the recent growth literature, the dramatic worldwide decline in fertility currently taking place should ultimately lead to global economic stagnation. This pessimistic prediction is not shared by the original innovation-based growth literature. In recent years, however, this...