We tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic models. Our results...

This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The...

This paper studies the transmission of a foreign fiscal policy shock (assumed to be generated in Germany) to key macroeconomic variables in five Central and Eastern European economies (CEE-5). We use quarterly data from 1995 to 2009 and estimate an open economy structural vector autoregressive...

Current demographic developments in industrialized countries and their consequences for workforce ageing challenge the sustainability of intergenerational transfers and economic growth. A shrinking share of the young workforce will have to support a growing share of elderly, non-working people....

We present a meta-analysis of the determinants of foreign currency loans in Central and Eastern Europe. We base our inferences on the results of 21 studies that provide around 800 estimated coefficients for seven determinants of foreign currency loan demand. Our results indicate that, on...

The current demographic developments and their consequences for workforce ageing challenge the sustainability of intergenerational transfers and economic growth. A shrinking share of the young workforce will have to support a growing share of elderly, non-working people. Therefore, the...

Current demographic developments are expected to challenge the sustainability of welfare in industrialised economies. Persistent low fertility levels and increasing survival rates to older age imply a decreasing share of younger individuals within the labour force that needs to support an...

We analyze empirically the role played by energy inflation as a determinant of downward corrections in house prices. Using a dataset for 18 OECD economies spanning the last four decades, we identify periods of downward house price adjustment and estimate conditional logit models to measure the...

C<sc>respo</sc> C<sc>uaresma</sc> J., D<sc>oppelhofer</sc> G. and F<sc>eldkircher</sc> M. The determinants of economic growth in European regions, <italic>Regional Studies</italic>. This paper uses Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to find robust determinants of economic growth between 1995 and 2005 in a new data set of 255 European regions. It finds...

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we...