It is commonly believed that a monetary policy that targets the price level reduces the long-term variability of the price level, but only at the cost of increased variability of both inflation and output. We develop a model in which the one-step-ahead variance of output and the price level are...

This article explores the macroeconomic role that risk plays using the BAA-AAA spread as the measure of risk. First, it shows that meaningful upward movements in this spread are associated with recessions and their severity. Second, it includes the BAA-AAA spread in a structural...

It is generally agreed that the price-output correlation in the United States was positive prior to the Second World War, but became negative during the postwar period (at least by 1972). This paper offers evidence that the price-output correlation changed signs because of a decrease in the...

This article investigates whether the Central Bank of China in Taiwan (CBC) would have had a more successful monetary policy during the period 1978:3 to 1999:4 if it had followed an optimal rule rather than the discretionary policies that were actually employed. The article examines the use of...

Transactions (and precautionary) theories of money demand imply that the more unequal the distribution of income (or transactions), the lower the demand for money. This paper presents evidence that contradicts this implication of transactions theories of money demand. Using annual U.S. data, it...

This paper examines the role of seasonal interest-rate changes within a classical model. It shows that the rate of interest is relatively high during seasons in which resources have a relatively high value. Hence seasonal interest-rate variations cause economic actors to reallocate resources...

This paper uses the short-run restrictions implied by a simple aggregate demand-aggregate supply model as an aid in identifying structural shocks. Combined with the Blanchard-Quah restriction, it allows estimation of the slope of the aggregate supply curve, the variances of structural demand and...