Conventional measures of the risk of a financial asset make use of the unobserved (conditional) variance or standard deviation of its return. In this paper, we treat the observed absolute return as a measure of risk and explore its forecastability. Two simple models are considered. One is a new...

The range of daily asset prices is often used as a measure of volatility. Using a CARRX (conditional autoregressive range with exogenous variables) model, and the parsimony principle, the paper investigates the factors affecting the volatilities of Asian equity markets. Since the beginning of...

Developing economies often impose restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI). In recent years many developing economies liberalize external trade as well as FDI inflows. The economists have neglected the importance of government policies on economic performance until recently. This paper...

Assume that observations are generated from nonstationary autoregressive (AR) processes of infinite order. We adopt a finite-order approximation model to predict future observations and obtain an asymptotic expression for the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of the least squares predictor....

Macroeconomic or financial data are often modelled with cointegration and GARCH. Noticeable examples include those studies of price discovery, in which stock prices of the same underlying asset are cointegrated and they exhibit multivariate GARCH. Modifying the asymptotic theories developed in...

Macroeconomic or financial data are often modelled with cointegration and GARCH. Noticeable examples include those studies of price discovery, in which stock prices of the same underlying asset are cointegrated and they exhibit multivariate GARCH. Modifying the asymptotic theories developed in...

The authors examine whether economic growth is generated endogenously or exogenously, and estimate the externality effects due to private and public capital respectively. Applying a multivariate stochastic cointegration method to U.S. data, they find that the evidence is unfavorable to the...

A currency attack fails on its own when the speculator suffers from her financial problem. This paper extends the existing models and argues that the monetary authority?s willingness to peg and the speculator?s cost of attack are private information. Our model thus accounts for the duration of...

Since the seminal work by Engle and Russell, (1998), numerous studies have applied their standard/linear ACD(m,q) model (autoregressive conditional duration model of orders m and q) to fit the irregular spaced transaction data. Recently, Araichi et al. (2013) also applied the ACD model to claims...