This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy which is incurred when the true DGP exhibits parameter instability which is either overlooked or incorrectly modelled. We find that the loss is considerable when a FCM is estimated instead of the true TVCM,...

In this paper we examine the international transmission of the 1997 South East Asia financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model, and carry out LR tests for causality-in-variance with bootstrapped critical values. Three pairwise models are estimated for US, European, Japanese and...

In this study we examine the widely used Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test when applied to the logarithm of the standardized residuals of an estimated GARCH(1,1) model as a test for the adequacy of this specification. We review the conditions derived by De Lima (1996, Econometric Reviews,...