We evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak...

What accounts for the widely divergent impact of political scandal on the Nixon and Clinton administrations? This article argues that the extent to which an administration suffers in the public's eye from a scandal depends on the economic conditions prevailing at the time. Using Gallup poll...