We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean,...

Under the Articles of the Confederation, the central government of the United States had limited power to tax. Therefore, large debts accumulated during the US War for Independence traded at deep discounts. That situation framed a US fiscal crisis in the 1780s. A political revolution ?for that...

Was UK inflation more stable and/or less uncertain before 1914 or after 1945? We address these questions by estimating a statistical model with changing volatilities in transient and persistent components of inflation. Three conclusions emerge. First, since periods of high and low volatility...

Biz, bu makalede hibeler, öncellerin (priors) ve bilgi akýþlarýnýn özdeþ kalýplarýyla ancak tam piyasalar ve tüketicilerin sadece tekil risksiz tahvillerle iþlem yapabildikleri iki farklý piyasa yapýlarý ile risk piyasa fiyatlarýný karþýlaþtýracaðýz. Makalede spekülasyon...