The paper proposes to revisit Keynes’s Treatise on Probability. First, it stresses the Leibnizian origin of Keynes thought process. Second, it tries to unveil the real scope of the research program which underlies the book. Finding the logical foundations of probability characterized as the...

In situations characterized by true uncertainty and potential irreversibility, the safe minimum standard (SMS) approach is a decision rule to protect some critical natural resource-unless the social costs of doing so are somehow "intolerable." The SMS has been discussed widely, but actual case...

We investigate the effects of uncertainty and concomitant risk aversion as they impact the incentive structure and subsequent operation of an emissions permit market modeled after the U.S. S02 market. Our theoretical results suggest that uncertainty dulls incentives to achieve cost savings...

A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences. The more open goods, labor and capital markets are,...

Selection procedures are used in a variety of applications to select the best of a finite set of alternatives. "Best" is defined with respect to the largest mean, but the mean is inferred with statistical sampling, as in simulation optimization. There are a wide variety of procedures, which begs...

In recent decades, many countries have experienced suburbanization processes in metropolitan areas that have lead to an increase in urban sprawl by creating a growing polarity between newly formed satellite communities and the central urban area. More than before, work and residence location...