We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain...

From July 1978 to April 1989 Taiwan adopted a snake system by allowing the foreign exchange rate to fluctuate within a narrow band of the centered rate. Using monthly data on the Taiwan dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate, we show that inference on the purchasing power parity hypothesis is...

The analysis of Tobit model with non-normal error distribution is extended to the case of asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD). Since the ALD probability density function is known to be continuous but not differentiable, the usual mode-finding algorithms such as maximum likelihood can be...

We compare small-sample properties of Bayes estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of ARMA-GARCH models. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that in small sample, the Bayes estimator beats the MLE. We also develop a Bayes method of testing strict stationarity and ergodicity of the...