We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean,...

Was UK inflation more stable and/or less uncertain before 1914 or after 1945? We address these questions by estimating a statistical model with changing volatilities in transient and persistent components of inflation. Three conclusions emerge. First, since periods of high and low volatility...

Biz, bu makalede hibeler, öncellerin (priors) ve bilgi akýþlarýnýn özdeþ kalýplarýyla ancak tam piyasalar ve tüketicilerin sadece tekil risksiz tahvillerle iþlem yapabildikleri iki farklý piyasa yapýlarý ile risk piyasa fiyatlarýný karþýlaþtýracaðýz. Makalede spekülasyon...

The time-series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States: GNP growth is positively autocorrelated and GNP appears to have an important trend-reverting component. This paper investigates whether current real-business-cycle models are consistent with these...

In a Bayesian model, a rational-expectations Euler equation involves a learning wedge that disconnects the consumer's IMRS from the rational-expectations pricing kernel. The wedge is extremely volatile and explains the high volatility of the rational-expectations pricing kernel.

Estimates of the speed of convergence vary widely and depend on the methodology employed. While cross-sectional regressions typically find slow convergence, time series estimates suggest that incomes converge rapidly. This paper uses panel methods to combine cross-sectional and time series...

The time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States. GNP growth is positively autocorrelated over short horizons and negatively autocorrelated over longer horizons, and GNP has an important trend reverting component which has a hump-shaped moving...