"Das bestgeeignete klassische A-priori-Maß zur Beurteilung von Prognosemethoden und -ergebnissen ist der durchschnittliche Prognosefehler. ... In die Schätzung des durchschnittlichen Prognosefehlers gehen aber zahlreiche Voraussetzungen ein, die in ihrer Gesamtheit statistisch nicht prüfbar...

"Das bestgeeignete klassische A-priori-Maß zur Beurteilung von Prognosemethoden und -ergebnissen ist der durchschnittliche Prognosefehler. ... In die Schätzung des durchschnittlichen Prognosefehlers gehen aber zahlreiche Voraussetzungen ein, die in ihrer Gesamtheit statistisch nicht prüfbar...

Gerard Debreu introduced a well known radial efficiency measure which he called a “coefficient of resource utilization.” He derived this scalar from a much less well known “dead loss” function that characterizes the monetary value sacrificed to inefficiency, and which is to be minimized...

Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large...

The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the...

This paper uses a decision theoretic approach for updating a probability measure representing beliefs about an unknown parameter. A cumulative loss function is considered, which is the sum of two terms: one depends on the prior belief and the other one on further information obtained about the...

The consistent ranking of multivariate volatility models by means of statistical loss function is a challenging research field, because it concerns the quality of the proxy chosen to replace the unobserved volatility, the set of competing models to be ranked and the kind of loss function. The...

In this paper, we develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) which is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model which measures...