This paper studies uncertainty about out-of-sample interest rate forecasts implied by an estimated Taylor rule. It is shown that the Taylor rule leads to a decomposition of forecast uncertainty into an element that depends on uncertainty about the future state of the economy and another element...

This paper studies whether monetary policy should respond to changes in monetary aggregates or stock market indices. Based on an empirical model of the US it presents estimates of how the inclusion of monetary aggregates or stock market indices in the central bank's information set affects the...

In recent years various different techniques to uncover the information on market expectations contained in option prices have been developed. This paper applies the technique of fitting a mixture of lognormal densities to LIFFE Euribor futures options to estimate the risk-neutral implied...

We estimate monetary policy reaction functions with threshold effects for the Deutsche Bundesbank using a real-time data set. Estimates based on the deviation of inflation from the Bundesbank's inflation target as threshold variable suggest a switch to a stronger output gap response in the...

Einige Banken sind in Bezug auf die Liquiditätsversorgung völlig von der EZB abhängig, da sie sich auf dem privaten Markt keine Liquidität verschaffen können. Martin Mandler und Peter Tillmann, Universität Gießen, schlagen ein Instrument zur Wiederbelebung des Repo-Markts vor, das eine...

Seit Mai 2010 kauft die Europäische Zentralbank direkt Anleihen privater und öffentlicher Schuldner auf dem Sekundärmarkt. Markus C. Kerber, Technische Universität Berlin, vertritt die Ansicht, dass diese »neue Offenmarktpolitik« der EZB, der Erwerb von Staatsanleihen auf dem...

This paper studies regime dependence in macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent....

We use a Taylor rule with time-varying policy coefficients in combination with an unobserved components model for the output gap to estimate the uncertainty about future values of the Federal Funds Rate. The model makes it possible to separate ex-ante interest rate uncertainty into three...

We study how the inclusion of growth rates of monetary aggregates or changes in stock market indices affects the stabilization performance of optimal monetary policy rules when there is uncertainty about the structure of the economy. With a simulation model of the U.S. economy we show that the...

Using real-time data I estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. Combining a Taylor rule with a model of economic fundamentals I disentangle economically interpretable components of forecast uncertainty: uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty...