Throughout the 1990s multilateral interventions often deviated significantly from traditional peacekeeping in terms of mandate complexity, level of force, and the absence of consent and impartiality. This paper develops a formal model of biased intervention and specifies propositions regarding...

In the aftermath of the cold war, intrastate conflicts have emerged to challenge international stability and security. Although some authors have attempted to identify strategies for bringing these conflicts to a peaceful conclusion, these recommendations have not been formally grounded. In this...

Using the framework developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project (www.carleton.ca/cifp), this paper examines state transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. While previous studies have found legitimacy to be a particular concern across the region,...

Two theoretical orientations, the instrumental and affective, have purported to explain interstate ethnic conflict. This investigation provides an initial assessment of the ability of affective motivations to account for properties of international crises. The point of departure is a review of...

In the wake of a new wave of violence in Sri Lanka and the classification by numerous Western countries of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as a terrorist organisation, many wonder if the agreement mediated by Norway between the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE has any long-term...

This article lays out a framework for country risk analysis and early warning drawing on the methodologies developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP – www.carleton.ca/cifp). Special attention is given to the identifi cation of failed and fragile states using the CIFP...

This paper is derived from our ongoing research on fragile states funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to help policymakers and analysts make decisions on where and how to allocate aid, especially in fragile state environments. In order for development assistance to...

With the UN now past the half-century mark of existence, it is natural to pause and reflect on the organization's role in the management and resolution of a truly global problem: ethnic conflict. No figures, however, are available with respect to the UN's record in responding to communal...

One of the growing debates among students of international politics concerns the precise linkage between ethnic conflict and international conflict. The present investigation attempts to contribute to this dialogue in three ways. First, prior studies of ethnic conflict and international...

The primary objective of this article is to advance the development of early warning of intrastate conflict by combining country-level structural and events data in a logistic regression model calibrated and validated using split-sample cases. Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of...