This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood....

<title>Abstract</title> This paper aims to investigate the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy rate to banking retail rates in Turkey by employing the asymmetric threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoegressive (MTAR) procedures introduced by Enders and Siklos (2001). Over the...

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde sermaye birikiminin (hem fiziksel hem de beşeri sermaye bağlamında) ve toplam faktör verimliliğinin (TFV) ekonomik büyüme üzerine katkıları, 1960-2004 dönemi ve bu dönemin ilgili alt dönemleri için, genişletilmiş büyüme muhasebesi...

This paper analyzes several economic and socio-demographic factors which affect households' energy choices in Turkey. The data is obtained from the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) conducted by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK). The multinomial logit model is used to identify households'...

We analyze the implications of the time inconsistency problem for the Turkish monetary policy in the last two decades. After deriving the restrictions that the Barro and Gordon model imposes on a time series model for inflation and output, we show that the time inconsistency problem can explain...

Upon difficulties faced by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) in attaining inflation targets, diverging movements in goods and services sectors prices, two components of the CPI basket, have drawn particular attention. However, studies on this issue have remained rather limited in developing as...

The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate...

Bu calismada amaclanan, yapisal butce dengesini hesaplayarak Turkiye’de 2006-2010 doneminde mali durusu ortaya koymak ve butce dengesinin devresel hareketlerden ne olçude etkilendigini belirlemeye calismaktir. Yapisal butce dengesinin uc asamada hesaplandigi bu calismada ilk olarak butce...