This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common European growth cycle. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions (MS-AR) are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate of industrial production. A Markov switching vector autoregression...

This article establishes a co-integration analysis for the euro area (sample period: 1983-2000), identifying three co-integrating vectors: one which can be labelled money demand (in which real M3 money balances are related to output, with unit elasticity, and the long rate of interest); another...

The European Monetary Union has been in operation since 1 January 1999. The paper offers an interim assessment of the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) during this period. It describes how the ECB defined its monetary strategy and carried out its policy. The evaluation offered in the...

This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common European growth cycle. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate of industrial production. A Markov switching vector autoregression model is...

In spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption-based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that the fraction of idiosyncratic consumption risk that gets shared among industrialized countries has actually increased considerably over the period...