This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European...

Upon entry into the European Union, countries become members of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with a derogation from adopting the euro as their currency (that is, each country joining the EU commits to replace its national currency with the euro, but can choose when to request...

This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In...

This paper is a contribution to a symposium mutually reviewing papers on Keynes's principle of effective demand as set out in The General Theory, by Allain (2009. Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, vol. 21, 1–22), Hartwig (2007....

This paper is a contribution to a symposium mutually reviewing papers on Keynes's principle of effective demand as set out in The General Theory, by Allain (2009. Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, vol. 21, 1–22), Hartwig (2007....

Валовой внутренний продукт (ВВП) является главным показателем объема рынка в стране. Он характеризует три важнейших макроэкономических показателя:...

This paper presents a framework for quantitatively evaluating the macroeconomic effects of corporate restructuring and applies it to Japan. Using firm-level financial statement data, it estimates total factor productivity (TFP) of individual Japanese firms. Given the estimated distribution of...

Growth of aggregate demand at any given private saving rate depends on growth of private investment, export surplus and budget deficit. Slower growth of private investment in the mid-1970s has triggered stagnation trends in Europe's developed economies, caused mainly by inadequate aggregate...

In recent years, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) models have become increasingly popular in the academic literature and in policy analysis. However, the success of these models in reproducing the dynamic behavior of an economy following structural shocks is still...

We show that the domestic output increases with a foreign country's structural reform and decreases with foreign country’s fiscal policy. Hence, when governments act non-cooperatively, they implement too low structural reforms and too much fiscal policies.