We model electricity futures prices using a seasonal forward curve model, quantifying seasonalities by a deterministic seasonal forward premium. Stochastic features of the futures prices are contained in the stochastic forward premium: a quantity analogous to the well-known convenience yield....

We model electricity futures prices using a seasonal forward curve model, quantifying seasonalities by a deterministic seasonal forward premium. Stochastic features of the futures prices are contained in the stochastic forward premium: a quantity analogous to the well-known convenience yield....

We develop a new approach to valuing and hedging basket options. We consider baskets of assets with potentially negative portfolio weights (spread options are a subclass of such basket options). The basket distribution is approximated using a generalized family of log-normal distributions. This...

Modelling the implied volatility surface as a function of an option's strike price and maturity is a subject of extensive research in financial markets. The implied volatility in commodity markets is much less studied, due to a limited liquidity and the complicated structure of commodity...

We consider a novel approach to modelling of commodity prices and apply it to commodity option pricing and volatility estimation. This approach is particularly suited for prices with multiple attraction regions, such as crude oil and other energy and agricultural commodities. The price is...

An empirical approach to analysing the forward curve dynamics of energy futures is presented. For non-seasonal commodities—such as crude oil—the forward curve is well described by the first three principal components: the level, slope and curvature. A principal component indicator is...