This paper presents simplified techniques for analyzing the effect of uncertainty in large decision problems. Starting with the development of approximate expressions for the moments of a value lottery, we show that the probabilistic assessments of jointly related random variables necessary for...

Decision analysis stands on a foundation of hundreds of years of philosophical and practical thought about uncertainty and decision-making. The accomplishments and promise of the field are impressive, yet it has not become commonplace even in very important decisions. While human nature may pose...

This paper considers the maximization of certain equivalent reward generated by a Markov decision process with constant risk sensitivity. First, value iteration is used to optimize possibly time-varying processes of finite duration. Then a policy iteration procedure is developed to find the...

Earlier models for the evaluation of assuming and shedding risks of death are extended to the case of possibly extreme disability over a lifetime. Earlier micromort values are supplemented with microdisability values to enable individuals to make consistent decisions in hazardous situations.

Dynamic programming is a mathematical technique for solving certain types of sequential decision problems. We characterize a sequential decision problem as a problem in which a sequence of decisions must be made with each decision affecting future decisions. We need to consider such problems...

It occurred to me that by writing a letter to the newer members I could assure them that there is not only an opportunity, but a real need for them to become involved with the operation of the Institute at both national and local levels.

The topic, "The Interface Between Management Science and Managers," sounds as if it should make a certain amount of sense, and yet sometimes I worry. If I referred to "The Interface Between Physics and the Motorist," "The Interface Between Aeronautical Science and the Airline Pilot," or "The...

I have earlier commented on the need for practicality in management science education. Here I would like to emphasize the form of the educational program and the personal characteristics of those who complete it successfully. The crucial problem in education would seem to be the development of...

To get fragmented information out of people's heads, onto paper, and ultimately into a computer is a continually challenging problem. We show how to use the concepts of influence diagrams to construct knowledge maps that capture the diverse information possessed by an individual or a group. We...