We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These...

The Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting is outlined, discussed and improved utilizing standard time series approaches. The new framework, which integrates estimation and forecasting, delivers more robust results and permits more detailed insight into underlying mortality dynamics. An...

The smoothing filter is appropriately modified for state space models with an unknown initial condition. Modifications are confined to an initial stretch of the data. An application illustrates procedures. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These...