In the production function approach, an accurate output gap assessment requires a careful evaluation of the total factor productivity (TFP) cycle. We build a common cycle model that links TFP to capacity utilization and we show that, in almost all of the pre-enlargement EU countries, using...

This paper adds oil prices to an estimated DSGE model for the euro area. The price of oil is an important macroeconomic driving factor for most industrialised countries. The euro area is importing most of its oil from abroad; therefore changes in oil prices have effects on domestic income via the...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a consistent and transparent theoretical and empirical framework to analyse real effective equilibrium exchange rates for a large number of industrial countries. The theoretical and empirical model, as well as the applied methodology, are closely related...

This paper compares the technological and economic developments related to information and communication technologies in the 90s both in the US and Europe. In the first part, comparable information on the impact of ICT production and investment in both economies over the 90s is presented. The...

This paper is divided into 4 sections. 1) Deals with measurement issues and provides an overview of both the main statistical trend estimation methods as well as the more economically respectable production function approach. 2) Gives a detailed presentation of the potential output and output...

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the...

In 1968 Friedman put forward the notion of a “natural†rate of unemployment to encapsulate the idea that a “normal†level of unemployment, roughly equivalent to the amount of frictional and structural unemployment, persists even when the labour market is in equilibrium. Since...

This paper examines the economic implications of ageing populations. Simulations with the QUEST II model, which take explicit account of the labour force and public finance implications of ageing, suggest per capita living standards in the EU, US and Japan are likely to fall significantly over...

Life expectancy, fertility rates and migration flows are the key determining factors underlying all population projections. The share of elderly people in the overall population is presently of the order of 15 percent in the EC, US, and Japan. This paper examines the economic implications of...

In 1968 Friedman put forward the notion of a natural rate of unemployment to encapsulate the idea that a normal level of unemployment, roughly equivalent to the amount of frictional and structural unemployment, persists even when the labour market is in equilibrium. Since there are no direct...