This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the government debt dynamics in an open economy using the analytical framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2007) extended to an open economy. Applying this modeling approach to the data for the Czech Republic, the authors derive some...

We quantify the effects of monetary policy transparency and credibility on macroeconomic volatility in an estimated model of the Eurozone. In our model, private agents are unable to distinguish between temporary shocks to the central bank's monetary policy rule and persistent shifts in the...

An exchange rate between two currencies can be materially affected by shocks emerging from a third country. A US demand shock, for example, can affect the exchange rate between the euro and the yen. Because positive US demand shocks have a greater positive impact on Japanese interest rates than...

According to economic theory, the capital inflows reversal – so-called sudden stop – has a significant negative effect on economic growth. This paper investigates the direct impact of current account reversals on growth in Central and Eastern European countries. Two steps to conduct the...

This paper investigates the possible negative effect of external crises, sudden stops in capital flows and currency crises in emerging market economies. We find that a current account reversal has an important effect, both direct and indirect, on economic growth, and depresses GDP by about 1...

This paper studies the development of institutional structures for prudential and business conduct supervision of financial services over the past decade for 98 high and middle income countries. It identifies possible drivers of changes in these supervisory structures using a panel ordered...

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from...

The recent global financial crisis has had a diverse effect on countries’ fiscal stance, especially throughout the EU. This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic shocks, including those to government revenues and expenditures, on EU countries’ fiscal stance, on aggregate, and within the...