Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects...

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combination of several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost...

In this paper, we establish some limit theorems on the combined Csorgo-Révész increments with moduli of continuity for finite dimensional Gaussian random fields under mild conditions, via estimating upper bounds of large deviation probabilities on suprema of the finite dimensional Gaussian...

We propose a test of the hypothesis of stochastic monotonicity. This hypothesis isof interest in many applications. Our test is based on the supremum of a rescaledU-statistic. We show that its asymptotic distribution is Gumbel. The proof is difficultbecause the approximating Gaussian stochastic...

A recent result by Findley (1986) on the uniqueness of moving average representations for non-Gaussian time series is shown to establish a conjecture by Weiss (1975) on the time-reversibility of general linear processes. © 1988 Biometrika Trust.

The paper considers the problem of estimating the dependence function of a bivariate extreme survival function with standard exponential marginals. Nonparametric estimators for the dependence function are proposed and their strong uniform convergence under suitable conditions is demonstrated....