Protection of human life and property from flooding is a strategic priority in the UK. We examine how to encourage home owners to protect themselves and their residences. A model of factors that influence the decision to buy flood-protection devices is tested using survey data from 2109 home...

We examined the relationship between information processing style and information seeking, and its moderation by anxiety and information utility. Information about Salmonella, a potentially commonplace disease, was presented to 2960 adults. Two types of information processing were examined:...

The "decide-announce-defend" approach to decision-making offers few meaningful opportunities for engagement in decision processes and communities and individuals frequently feel isolated from decisions. Correspondingly, many practitioners believe science is misunderstood by communities and that...

The role of experience has been shown to be critical for risk management. Yet, few studies have conceptualised and explained the organisational processes that determine how experience informs risk management. We present a case study examining how experience informs the risk-based decisions of...

The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a...

In the literature on unobservable component models , three main statistical instruments have been used for signal extraction: fixed interval smoothing (FIS), which derives from Kalman's seminal work on optimal state-space filter theory in the time domain; Wiener-Kolmogorov-Whittle optimal signal...

This book explores globalisation and the war on terror in a world that is becoming increasingly and significantly polarised and in which dialogue is undermined. The authors contend that citizenship does not obey a static definition, and that its meaning is located in changing economic, social...

Among the alternative Unobserved Components formulations within the stochastic state space setting, the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) has proved particularly useful for adaptive seasonal adjustment signal extraction, forecasting and back-casting of time series. Here, we show first how to...