This paper examines the determinants of long-term bond yields through a panel data analysis of forward rates in 10 developed countries. We confirm that in addition to inflation expectations and the labor productivity growth rate, which influences the natural rate of interest, fiscal conditions,...

This paper estimates an affine term structure model (ATSM) and a shadow rate model (SRM) using Japanese, US, and UK data until March 2013. These models produce very different results, which are attributable to the ATSM's neglect of the zero lower bound (ZLB). The 10-year term premium estimated...

A macro-finance model combined with Black's (1995) model of interest rates as options is employed to investigate the relationship between the yield curve and monetary policy under Japan's zero interest rate environment. The results indicate a strong effect on nominal yields, but not on real...

We use a regime-switching model to examine how exchange rate volatilities influence the failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP). Main findings are as follows. First, exchange rate returns are significantly influenced by regime switches in the relationship between the returns and interest rate...

This paper derives analytical solutions for interest rate term structures in a new Keynesian framework. Theoretically, we consider the conditions for the positive average slope of nominal term structure, and show that the slope of a real one is positive. We then calibrate the model to find the...

The literature estimates the risk premia in the federal funds futures rates to extract market expectations of monetary policy by assuming that the forecast errors of the market expectations are zero on average, or that survey forecasts are good proxies for market expectations. These assumptions,...

Macroeconomic models are effective tools for central banks in economic projection, including risk assessment. In recent years, a multiple-model approach called the "Suite of Models" has become popular with central banks. This approach advocates the use of multiple models for several purposes,...

Economists at central banks and in academia have made various efforts to measure potential growth, something that cannot be observed directly. This review introduces some of these estimation techniques and applies them to the Japanese data. The estimates of the potential growth rate can differ...

Which labor market specification is better able to describe inflation dynamics, a widely-used sticky wage model or a recently-investigated labor market search model? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate these two models with Japan’s data. This paper shows that the labor market...

We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly...