This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that influence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the fundamental export factors include foreign demand, domestic and foreign...

This paper examines the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the US dollar exchange rates against the currencies of Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. In this paper, we utilize the cointegration technique for testing long-run relationship, and vector error correction model for...

This paper presents an exchange rate forecasting model which combines the multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing techniques. The model outperforms a random walk at short horizons and its superior forecastability appears to be robust over different sample spans. Our finding hinges on...

Long-horizon regression tests are widely used in empirical finance, despite evidence of severe size distortions. I propose a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions. A Monte Carlo study shows that this bootstrap test greatly reduces the size distortions of...

The article aims at introducing new methodology for recognizing suitable indicators to monitor the potential risk of extensive pressure on the exchange rate (early warning indicators) and for identifying vulnerabilities in an economy to this pressure reflected by simultaneous negative...

This paper develops vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models to forecast the Indian Re/US dollar exchange rate which is governed by a managed floating exchange rate regime. It considers extensions of the monetary model that include the forward premium, capital inflows,...

The paper advances an original artificial intelligence-based mechanism for specific economic predictions. The aim is to forecast the exchange rate of euro versus the Romanian currency using a large set of financial data. The possible influence of specific forecasting indicators (such as Sibiu...

The paper advances an original artificial intelligence-based mechanism for specific economic predictions. The time series under discussion are non-stationary; therefore the distribution of the time series changes over time. The algorithm establishes how a viable structure of an artificial neural...

The integration of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries into theEuropean Union is supposed to bring them significant benefits. Along with the effects comingfrom changes in tariffs, accession to the EU internal market and free labor movement onGDP, consumption and terms of trade, the...

This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 9 OECD countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2009:Q1 at short and long horizons. In contrast with previous work, which reports...