This paper describes the results of a two-and-a-half year effort in proactive planning at the Bureau of the Census in Washington, D.C. Most large-scale organizations merely react to their future(s) instead of actively planning for and thus anticipating the future(s) they would like to bring...

This paper deals with the critical role that assumptions play in strategic planning and strategic problem forming. It attempts to formulate a methodology or systematic procedure for (1) uncovering (surfacing), (2) analyzing the effect, and (3) challenging key policy assumptions. The paper shows...

The methodology of simulation involves a representational approach to observed phenomena. Systems theory has been, in the past, more terminology than theory. However, a logical classification of the possible representational forms available for any simulation would serve as a meta-theory in...

This paper describes the difficulties in evaluating large-scale scientific programs. These difficulties are illustrated through a single case study of the Apollo moon program. The paper describes some of the results of a three and a half year investigation into the beliefs of 42 of the most...

This paper presents a new framework for handling ill-structured decision problems. The framework derives from recent developments in the logic of argumentation. It shows how policy statements may under certain conditions be construed as the outcome of a complex process of argumentation. The...