Die Untersuchung befaßt sich zunächst mit Gastaxbeiterwandemngen in die Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1967 bis 1987. Alterspyramiden der Zuzüge, der Fortzüge und der Nettoimmigration werden ermittelt. Mit Hilfe der Clusteranalyse werden typische Altersstrukturen der Gastarbeitermigration...

Finanzmathematische und demographische Methoden werden präsentiert, um den Einfluß von Wanderungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung zu präsentieren. Finanzmathematische Methoden berücksichtigen nicht die Altersstruktur einer Bevölkerung und können daher nur als Approximation...

The accuracy of U.N. population projections is examined. The goal is to measure the amount of uncertainty associated with past projections of the United Nations in order to provide a reaiistic measure of the uncertainty in the projection that the U.N. makes in the future. Various descriptive...

The mortality of German joint stock companies is investigated using life table techniques. An EDB-distribution or Hjorth-distribution and an exponential distribution are fitted to the hazard rates, whereby the population is divided into small and large firms. Survivor functions and life...

The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States to the year 2080 is discussed. The forecasts are based on data for 1900-1980. It is shown that no major difference exists between the Box-Jenkins approach and parabolic trend curves when making long-range...

For judging the quality of population forecasting methods, the root mean square error (RMSE) has proven to be a useful tool. A suitable variance component model is proposed for calculating the variance of the RMSE. The method is demonstrated by an example.