This paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Since agents that plan for the future care about expected future utility flows, current felicity can be increased by believing that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, expectations that are biased towards...

The twenty-seventh edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual continues a tradition of featuring theoretical and empirical contributions that shed light on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics, pushing the frontiers of macroeconomic research on topics related to both the business cycle...

<DIV>The twenty-eighth edition of the <I>NBER Macroeconomics Annual </I>continues its tradition of featuring theoretical and empirical research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. As in previous years, this volume not only addresses recent developments in macroeconomics, but also takes up...</i></div>

<DIV>The twenty-ninth edition of the <I>NBER Macroeconomics Annual </I>continues its tradition of featuring theoretical and empirical research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Two papers in this year’s issue deal with recent economic performance: one analyzes the evolution of aggregate...</i></div>