Natural gas production and consumption data have been drifting apart. Production should equal consumption plus increases or decreases in storage, but sampling and estimation errors typically result in slight discrepancies. Seeing these gaps rise, the Energy Information Administration (EIA)...

Data augmentation and Gibbs sampling are two closely related, sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments. The fact that each produces a sample whose constituents are neither independent nor identically distributed complicates the assessment of convergence and numerical...

We examine the properties of a method for fixing Libor rates that is based on transactions data and multi-day sampling windows. The use of a sampling window may mitigate problems caused by thin transaction volumes in unsecured wholesale term funding markets. Using two partial data sets of loan...

Are structural vector autoregressions (VARs) useful for discriminating between macro models? Recent assessments of VARs have shown that these statistical methods have adequate size properties. In other words, in simulation exercises, VARs will only infrequently reject the true data generating...

In this paper, we introduce the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, a new longitudinal database with detailed information on consumer debt and credit. The panel uses a unique sample design and information derived from consumer credit reports to track individuals’ and households’ access to and use...

Efficiency of financial markets is one of the most studied subjects in theoretical finance. Formalization of this idea is realised by the random walk model. Numerous tests have been developed to validate the hypothesis of identically and independently distributed innovations. But the results of...

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in nonparametric bootstrap inference for economic time series. Nonparametric resampling techniques help protect against overly optimistic inference in time series models of unknown structure. They are particularly useful for evaluating the fit...

This study examines the small sample properties of GMM and ML estimators of non-linear models of covariance structure. The study focuses on the properties of parameter estimates and the Hansen (1982) and Newey (1985) model specification test. It use Monte Carlo simulations to consider the...